After witnessing substantially lower scoring games than expected in the opening week of the 2023 season, oddsmakers made significant changes to their projections in Week 2.
In fact, the drastic line adjustments resulted in only one game closing with a point total above 50 points. That honor, which belonged to the Chiefs-Jaguars matchup, resulted in the lowest scoring game of the week as both clubs combined for only 26 points.
On terms of side wagering, road teams are winning straight-up (SU) at a 60-percent clip to start the season. In Week 2 visiting squads (Chargers, Chiefs, Giants, 49ers Dolphins, Saints and Browns) which were favored to win by oddsmakers, went 5-2 (SU).
NFL Betting Trends
Through the first two weeks of the 2023 season bettors have witnessed home field become a non-factor both in the outcome of games as well as in the success of against the spread (ATS) wagers. Thus far, road teams have dominated going 19-13 SU (59.4%) while remarkably posting a 21-11 (ATS) (65.6%) mark.
Grabbing the points was a lucrative way to invest in 2022 as underdogs finished with a 151-124-9 against the spread (ATS) (54.9%) mark. Through two weeks of the 2023 season, bettors have found that trend continuing in impressive fashion as underdogs are 20-12 ATS (62.5%).
After total bettors witnessed significantly lower scoring games in Week 1, to the tune of a 12-4 mark to the under, in Week 2 games were higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 13-3 mark to the over. On the year, overs now own a small lead with a mark of 17-15 (53.1%).
Rams Meaningless FG As Time Expires Serve Up Horrible Bad Beat
San Francisco, who were 7.5-point road favorites against the Rams, served up the most egregious bad beat of Week 2. With the game firmly out of reach, Matthew Stafford oddly opted to spike the ball, rather than allowing the last few seconds to expire. The Rams, who were trailing 30-20 with just four seconds left in the game, shockingly decided to bring on the field goal unit despite being firmly aware an attempt would be the final play of the game.
As time expired, Brett Maher converted a 38-yard field goal, enabling Los Angeles to cover as +7.5 home underdogs. The unexplainable decision by Sean McVay resulted in a bad beat for 49ers bettors.
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Jefferson Fumble Out of End Zone Crushes Player Prop Bettors
On Thursday night, Vikings star wideout Justin Jefferson looked poised to cash for player proposition bettors on his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ at odds of +105. However, the most bet player to score in the primetime game, lost control of the ball as he reached for the pylon resulting in a touchback.
Week 2 Games Surpass Oddsmakers Expectations
In Week 2, the Eagles and Vikings treated fans to a 34-28 shootout on Thursday night football, eclipsing the 48 point betting demand. On Sunday, that trend continued in a big way as games were much higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting an incredible 11-2 mark to the over.
Sportsbook Crush Public Bettors On Most Heavily Bet Games
71% of money on Lions (-4.5)
- Geno Smith and the Seahawks emerge victorious with a 37-31 overtime win.
72% of money on Bengals (-3.5)
- Ravens upset Cincinnati, 27-24, sending Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 0-2 start.
82% on Over Kansas City / Jacksonville (50.5)
- The game with the highest scoring total on the board ends in a low-scoring 17-9 Chiefs victory.
78% of money on Giants (-4.5)
- Big Blue escapes with 31-28 comeback win, but Arizona covers the 4.5-point spread.
67% of money on 49ers (7.5)
- Rams kick meaningless FG, down 10 as time expires, 49ers win 30-23
81% of money on Under Dallas/Jets (38.5)
- Expecting two dominant defenses, bettors witnessed only one showing up. The most heavily bet under of Week 2 surpasses the total.
Can You Kick It?! One Bettor Wins $318,000 on FG Prop Bet
One bettor, who goes by the handle @JDGoldboys on Platform X, wagered that ‘every’ team in the late Sunday NFL slate would kick at least one field goal at odds of +20,000. After the Jets, Cowboys, Commanders, Broncos, 49ers, Rams and Cardinals had all successfully kicked one field goal, only one sweat remained - the Giants. With only :23 seconds remaining, Graham Gano kicked the game-winner from 34 yards out to cash his investments of $1,584 - returning a massive win of $318,384.
Hundreds of other bettors also cashed in on the prop which resulted in FanDuel paying out around $20 million.
KICKERS FOR THE WIN! 🤑— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 18, 2023
Every NFL team made at least 1 FG during the afternoon slates of Week 2...
Finance team just called: we're paying out more than $20 MILLION to FanDuel customers who locked in this bet! 😳 pic.twitter.com/ZBOMGe8bYq
In Week 2, Survivor Pool contestants heavily used Buffalo (-8) over Las Vegas, the Giants (-4.5) over the Cardinals, Denver (-3.5) over Washington and Dallas (-8.5) over the Jets.
Note: The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In the second week of the NFL season, the Bills, Giants, Broncos and Cowboys massively made up 79.5% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.
While the Bills, Giants and Cowboys earned victories, the Broncos loss knocked out 11.6% of the Circa Superbook Survior contestants. In addition, home favorites Detroit and Cincinnati also eliminated a solid amount of entrants after suffering Week 2 losses.
Here are five games that will likely be heavily selected by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 3:
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
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